The geopolitical environment is the most dangerous it’s been in decades, and yet the global economy is faring well. Markets are taking hits and (mostly) bouncing back.
What’s wrong with this picture? Nothing … yet. The most serious geopolitical risks (a cyber confrontation with Russia, war with Iran, implosion in Europe, a true U.S.-China trade war) are more plausible than they’ve been, but none are particularly likely to play out in 2019. We are heading for serious longer-term trouble down the road, however. That’s the first of Eurasia Group’s Top 10 risks this year.
1. Bad seeds
World leaders are so busy dealing with local crises that they’re ignoring much bigger problems down the road. 2019 is the year “bad seeds” are being planted that will eventually threaten the entire global order.
Examples? Political institutions across the world’s advanced democracies, the transatlantic alliance, NATO, the European Union, the G20, the World Trade Organization, U.S.-China, Russia and the We..