In London the clock is ticking down to Brexit day, Oct. 31, the date of Britain’s scheduled exit from the European Union.
But will Britain actually leave the E.U. on Halloween? As of Monday, the answer is probably not.
Brexit is on track to be delayed after Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to E.U. leaders on Saturday night asking for an extension until Jan. 31. They are currently formulating a response, but are expected to agree to an extension.
However, even though the Prime Minister has asked for a delay, Brexit could still happen on Oct. 31 — if Johnson can first drive the deal he negotiated with E.U. leaders through the U.K. parliament.
So, it’s complicated, events are fast-moving, and things could still change. Here’s what to know:
What happened to Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal?
On Saturday, British lawmakers thwarted a vote on Johnson’s newly-negotiated Brexit deal. Had they voted in favor, Brexit would have happened as scheduled on Oct. 31.
A contingent of lawmakers eager to avoid Britain crashing out of the E.U. without a deal realized that even if Johnson’s deal had passed, a so-called “no deal” Brexit could still happen if the bill failed to pass through both Houses of Parliament in time to become law before Halloween.
Instead, on Saturday, lawmakers voted to withhold their crucial support for Johnson’s deal until after it had become law. In practice, that meant that Johnson was unable to get the clean yes or no vote he had desired.
Why did Boris Johnson ask for a new delay to Brexit?
The parliamentary vote on Saturday forced Johnson to comply with a law passed last month by rebel lawmakers, mandating him to request a Brexit delay from the E.U. if a deal had not been agreed by Oct. 19. He had repeatedly said he would prefer to “die in a ditch” than to do so, but late that evening, Johnson sent three unsigned letters to the E.U. requesting a delay.
Outside Parliament, crowds of anti-Brexit protesters cheered and danced after lawmakers voted to withhold their support, amid what organizers described as a million-strong march, one of the largest demonstrations in British history.
What will happen next?
On Monday, Johnson is expected to try to schedule another vote on his deal. If it comes to a vote and passes, the government will then attempt to speed it through the process of becoming law.
But even if it passes, a Brexit on Oct.31 is not guaranteed. Because Johnson’s Conservative Party does not have an overall majority in parliament there’s a chance that other lawmakers could succeed in amending the deal in ways that Johnson opposes.
One suggestion, put forward by opposition Labour Party lawmakers, is to write in a provision to hold a second Brexit referendum after the deal passes, in which voters will be given the chance to choose between leaving with Johnson’s deal and remaining in the E.U.
As of Monday, it was not clear whether that amendment had the numbers to succeed.
More likely to pass is another amendment requiring the U.K. to negotiate remaining in a customs union with the E.U., undermining one of Johnson’s key Brexit promises. If that succeeds, he may drop his deal entirely and push for an election.
Is a no deal Brexit still possible?
In the unlikely event that the E.U. rejects the U.K.’s standing request for an extension, there could still be a no deal Brexit on Oct. 31.
But in the more likely event that an extension is granted, no deal could still be on the cards next year. If a deal has still not been agreed by the likely new deadline in January, Britain could crash out without a deal. That’s because the current anti-no deal legislation, passed by rebel lawmakers in September, was written with very specific reference to the Oct. 31 deadline.
In addition, the deal could still collapse after Brexit day has passed. One of the key elements of the deal is that the U.K. would enter a “transition period” between membership and non-membership of the E.U., which would last until 2020. During that transition period, a full free trade deal between the U.K. and E.U. would need to be negotiated.
On Saturday, some lawmakers poring over the fresh ink of Johnson’s new deal were concerned that instead of avoiding no deal, it left open the possibility of a no deal Brexit if trade negotiations with the E.U. collapsed.
Is Britain likely to have a general election?
Yes. Johnson has repeatedly stated that he wants to hold an election as soon as possible, come either a deal or a Brexit delay. He hopes that in that election he can win a majority, making the next stage of the Brexit process easier.
Johnson tried and failed in September to call an election, with the opposition Labour and Liberal Democrat parties saying they could not lend their support to one with no deal so close to the horizon. After a delay, however, both parties are expected to vote in favor of holding an election before the next deadline in January, giving Johnson the two-thirds majority in Parliament he needs for an election.
